First Major Slot Distribution
With the lead-up to TI8, there was a huge amount of discussion about who ‘deserved’ the non-allocated, non-guaranteed slots. In the end it was NA which (in my opinion) got their fair share, and China which probably got a bit too much (perhaps EU and CIS should’ve fought for that final slot like I proposed!). This type of discussion isn’t strange to the Dota 2 world, basically every large event (i.e. Valve events and a few others each season) would have a discussion (read: argument) about how the slots are decided.
Now we’re about to begin the new season and Valve has taken more control of how the DPC events will be run, especially in slot allocation. In a major, two slots must be allocated to each region, 1 slot to the associated minor winner, and the 3 remaining slots are allocated by Valve. This is definitely more fair than allowing tournament organisers to decide how the slots are divvied up, especially given the relationship between some tournament organizers and team(s); however it doesn’t mean that Valve’s slot allocation decisions are beyond reproach.
Valve have decided that for The Kuala Lumpur Major, the 3 discretionary slots will be allocated to China, Europe and North America. The 3 North America slots and 3 European slots are unavoidable: at The International 2018 the top 8 featured all 3 of the European teams and all 3 of the North American teams (+LGD from China +VP from CIS).
Back when Valve had more direct control in Majors, they historically considered their own events heavily for the Major invites. Perhaps the most obvious case of this I can think of was MVP Phoenix. They came 5th-6th at TI6, did basically nothing of value afterwards (they came last in MDL 2016 Autumn to which they were directly invited — blocking all other SEA teams) and yet were invited to The Boston Major (they ended bottom of their group, and then were eliminated in last place by OG).
Fast forward to today, and China just had their worst TI showing ever — LGD coming 2nd, Serenity & Vici in 9–12th, Newbee & VGJ. Thunder in 13–16th, Invictus Gaming in 17–18th. Despite this, China have still received 3 slots to the first Major of the season — 3 chances to rake in points for the even more important DPC race in the ‘18/’19 season.
Although this is actually the tied fewest slots a Chinese team has had in the last 3 years of 16+ team significant LAN events, one has to ask if this is a reasonable and consistent decision by Valve. Surely if TI is being considered as a significant indicator, then China should receive no additional discretionary slots?
“But China will be strong after the shuffle!”
Why is it that whenever another region (for example, SEA, or EU) has performed poorly in the past, they have been punished by receiving fewer direct slots to the next Valve event?
Even if this is some admittance that past behavior was bad — hat metrics are they currently using to decide who gets the invite? The entire change in the TI qualification system was to make the process more transparent to players and fans. It’s illogical that so much of the system has become transparent but such an integral part remains opaque.
“Home Advantage means SEA should get another slot”
Big LANs held in China over the years have always seen a much higher average number of Chinese teams, as many as 9/16 for the first DAC. This is true about most regions in fact, but Chinese events are by far the most egregious and frequent offenders.
I think that this concept is actually mostly unreasonable position in isolation — being from a region that hosts lots of events doesn’t mean you should get even bigger advantage (beyond not having to travel far, eat strange foreign food, etc), but that said, if Valve manage all discretionary slots — they can at least minimize this unfairness. They can do this by distributing the discretionary slots fairly; however I think it’s almost impossible that there’s no upcoming Majors in China where China will get it’s free +1 chance.
“If not China, who else — {SEA,SA} sucks!”
So even if we were to accept that SA and SEA had bad performances at TI — what about CIS? They had VP who came 5th-6th and Winstrike who came 9–12th. VP’s performance throughout the previous DPC season was excellent, so them not coming top 3 at TI is as surprising as the quality and resolve of OG’s overall victory. It’s not totally bonkers to think that a team like Espada could’ve managed to end in similar position to Winstrike, or at least avoid finishing in the bottom of their group.
I think that the concept of the 3 discretionary spots is great if they’re objectively defined as a bonus for the top-performing regions. In all other cases they’re bad because they are open to abuse. Right now I don’t think there’s enough evidence to support China receiving 3 slots. It’s no secret that TI9 will be held in China, so there is a direct incentive for Valve to ensure that there’s more home-teams in it to maintain local viewership. That doesn’t mean that it’s fair for them to try give any advantage to the home nation by making it even a tiny bit more likely that teams from that nation qualify for the event in some intentionally opaque manner.
Even if all 3 of China’s teams do well in this upcoming event, that in itself is not some sort of redeeming justification for the decision being made right now — Valve should point at the data and reasoning for making a decision, and apply it consistently moving forward. Constantly changing the rationale so suit the outcome isn’t fair to those participating in the system.
- Noxville
